“Friends, examine next with your mind’s eye the strategic contours of the give and take in the recent rounds of negotiations between the representatives of Prabhakaran and the ‘negotiators’ of the Sri Lankan Government. Prabhakaran adopts the ‘minimax strategy’ - he prepares for the worst and seeks all means to weaken the stance of the other side. What better evidence of this than the establishment of the gubernatorial instruments of a separate state concurrently with the negotiations? He ‘armed forces’ taunt the enemy. His ‘navy’ shoots to kill. His ‘police’ pounce on any alien who dares to cross into his territory.” __________________________
by R. Chandrasoma
(April 18, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) It is a great pity that our chief negotiators (and their advisors) have no background in science - be it of the mathematical and engineering kind or the disciplines dealing with human and animal behaviour. Legalistic wrangling could then have given place to a more astute judgment of the mind- set of the terrorist Prabhakaran and the strategic thrust of his war-plans.
An oft-proclaimed cry fo our" side (i.e. the Sri Lankan Government is that ‘we are prepared to discuss anything short of outright independence’. This is a disastrous ploy when dealing with an enemy that has unflinching goals that he hopes to achieve through maneuvers that conceal his true intentions. Candidness and a grovelling spirit of-accommodation on the government side have been met with a Tiger evasiveness and prevarication that have as their aim nothing other than to cheat. To the Tiger leadership negotiations are a means of ‘anaesthetizing’ the people of this country so that the difficult military operation of severing a portion of Sri Lanka can be accomplished without the pain and turmoil that ordinarily accompanies such division. Note that it is the ‘people’ who are unceremoniously cheated. We must hesitate to say the same of the negotiators and their foreign backers. It is to the people of this country, then, that we must outline the process-dynamics envisaged in the Tiger Plan to undermine and, eventually, destroy the sovereignty of Sri Lanka. Here are some of the highlights.
1. The Jaffna peninsula and its proximate territories: A battle for Jaffna is not on the cards. The infiltration by covert cadres currently making splendid progress will be allowed to continue. The special pitch here is to make the military presence of the Sri Lankan Government in the Peninsula a worthless and expensive cosmetic device due to the overwhelming presence of a mixed Tiger—civilian population at the very doorstep of the marooned fortifications. The current campaign to remove the High Security Zones is a vital part of this strategy. Given that cowardice and disarray have been a lamentable feature of our recent battles with the Tigers, one can understand their confidant expectation to capture the heavily-built bases without firing a shot - through the simple expedient of holding the embattled inmates to ransom in a future conflict. Readers will recall that the last battle for Jaffna moved along these lines and would have been spectacularly successful were it not for the bravery of the generals who were brought in as last-minute replacements.
2. Naval supremacy in the North-Eastern Sea: It would not be an exaggeration to say that the survival of our country as a unitary sovereign state will depend, to a large extent, on the ability of our navy to exercise hegemony in the North-Eastern seas. Ignorant of this vital fact, billions were frittered away on a vacuously show-peace Air-Force while the strategic build-up of our naval strength was catastrophically neglected. Such arrant folly was (and is) not a feature of the Tigers. They are desperately aware that the SLN must be removed if the vital umbilical cord that connects the Tiger heartland with the rest of the world is to remain intact - a connection that they cannot forego if the armed state of Eelam is to retain its renowned fighting capacity The hullabaloo over the home-waters of the ‘Eelam Navy’ must be seen in the context of these facts — the first moves in a pressure-game to neutralize the Sri Lanka Navy without the risk of trading live ammunition in a contest that they are very likely to lose. If the current level of folly (on the part of the SLG) persists, they may have their way.
3. For a viable Eelam, Trincomalee is the key: A future Eelam is faced with a formidable discontinuity - the existence of a swathe of territory joining the North-Central heartland of the Sinhala South with the maritime region surrounding the Port City of Trincomalee. This discontinuity must be removed if the resource-rich East is to become an appendix of the Territory of the Northern. Warlord. Hence every effort will be made to forcibly annex the ‘neck’ of territory joining Trincomalee to the region to the east of Polonnaruva. Above all, Trincomalee and its prized harbour must be secured and made the lynchpin of future forays in South Asia. There is more than military advantage in this accession - aided by the Norwegians, the Japanese and other new-found friends, this wonderful port can be the hub of a thriving industrial zone and an economic engine that could propel Eelam to prosperity. All this is pie-in-the-sky, but there is little doubt that Prabhakaran is both ambitious and realistic. The expulsion of a Moorish population long established in an inconvenient wedge north of the Port is first move in a game that is surely being rehearsed in the bunkers of the Warlord. A great dream of his would be the sailing of the Eelam navy into Trincomalee harbour with the Tiger flag fluttering in the breeze. A sad scenario that cannot be ruled out given the cravenness of our negotiators.
4 The burgeoning of the instruments of separation: In military forward planning, there is a dreaded turn of events called the ‘worst case scenario’ - preparing for the eventuality that things will turn out such that all odds are against us while fortune smiles on the enemy. It must be said that this course of action - called a ‘minimax strategy’ in game theory - is the rational thing to do when the outcome is highly unpredictable. Contrast this with the strategy of the foolish optimist, the man who erects a weak defence in the hope that things will turn out all right. Friends, examine next with your mind’s eye the strategic contours of the give and take in the recent rounds of negotiations between the representatives of Prabhakaran and the ‘negotiators’ of the Sri Lankan Government. Prabhakaran adopts the ‘minimax strategy’ - he prepares for the worst and seeks all means to weaken the stance of the other side. What better evidence of this than the establishment of the gubernatorial instruments of a separate state concurrently with the negotiations? He ‘armed forces’ taunt the enemy. His ‘navy’ shoots to kill. His ‘police’ pounce on any alien who dares to cross into his territory. He taxes, he has court hearings. There is no need to go on with this list. What, alas, do we do? We are committed to the belief that peace will dawn and do everything in our power to prevent those of a less optimistic turn of mind from questioning the wisdom of this flight from reality. We put a wildly optimistic gloss on each vile act of the other side. Is there any doubt about the winner of crazy this contest?
5. No let-up in the threat to destroy lives and property of non-combatants: The explosive destruction of lives and property in the South - through the use of heavily-armed suicide squads and ‘living bombs’ - has been for many years a prime strategy of Prbhakaran. More than the killing in the North and East, this visitation of sudden death in the seemingly pacific South has put great fear in the political leadership of our country. That there has been some horse-trading in this regard cannot be doubted - the Tigers have promised an end to their butchery as long as the cease-fire prevails. The million-dollar question is whether there will be a resumption of their spectacular bumping-off if the current negotiations go awry. Their killer squads continue to infiltrate the metropolis and their ‘Black Tiger Formations’ are regularly displayed at morale-boosting sessions organized in the North and East. Are we negotiating under criminal coercion? Is the fear of explosive death a factor in the stance adopted by our political leadership in dealing with Prabhakaran’s insurrection? Sadly, while our leaders are under a kind of suspended death-sentence, the man on the other side has got off the hook with the active help of the current leadership. More than forty operatives of the Deep penetration Unit’ have been liquidated in circumstances that are too well known to be detailed here.
6. Preaching to the Converted - the Buffoonery of the Moralists: Prbhakaran has many friends both in Sri Lanka and in the world who display an astonishing propensity to overlook the murderous vices of the man while being more than ready to castigate those ranged against him for their inhumanity. This is one of the great puzzles of our time. The so-called ‘MOU’ has not damped the ardour of the torch-bearers Panthang-karayas - emissaries flock to meet and greet the man, some crawling through bug-infested thickets to be rewarded with repast of spiced lobsters and ripe mangoes. Here is the paradox - the Sinhalayas are lambasted by both moralists and politicians for their chauvinism and lack of commitment to peace will the real killer and enemy of peace is praised for his courage and devotion to his tribe. As long as this topsy-turviness in political morals last, Prabhakaran cannot lose. He has made a fine art of blaming the victim through the artful use of pseudo-moralists and opportunistic politicians.
7. Prabhakaran counts his blessings - high-level corruption in the South is among the most prized: High-level corruption is endemic in Sri Lanka and an enemy of our country can count on this colossal failing to stymie any national effort to overcome a challenge of whatever kind. Among challenges to the well-being of a nation, war is in a class of its own in that it demands a degree of honesty, courage and dedication that lesser enterprises can afford to forego. That Prabhakaran is aware of this grave failing of the Sri Lankan State is no secret - indeed he boasts that his movement is sustained to a considerable degree by booty won from his enemy. He can count on this - and on a free recruitment of spies and saboteurs from the South if war breaks out again.
8. Real and Virtual Enemies - War and Politics in Sri Lanka: A virtual enemy is one that has public acceptance even if real enmity is directed elsewhere. Throughout the disastrous conflict in the North Prabhakaran was the virtual enemy while the real enemy of the man (or woman) in power was the opponent in the rival political camp. The war was forgotten while the political enemies spent sleepless nights thinking of schemes to outmanoeuvre and filibuster the other side.
This disgusting state of affairs continues unabated and one can be sure that the wily Prabhakaran is exploiting to the full this madness of inter-party dissension that puts the political fortunes of an individual (or party) above the national interest. Amazingly, the killer becomes a political partisan and his help is sought to defeat the opposing side. A politically and morally wreaked nation cannot wage a successful war. The enemy surely factors this into his operational calculus when deciding on a future course of action.
by R. Chandrasoma
(April 18, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) It is a great pity that our chief negotiators (and their advisors) have no background in science - be it of the mathematical and engineering kind or the disciplines dealing with human and animal behaviour. Legalistic wrangling could then have given place to a more astute judgment of the mind- set of the terrorist Prabhakaran and the strategic thrust of his war-plans.
An oft-proclaimed cry fo our" side (i.e. the Sri Lankan Government is that ‘we are prepared to discuss anything short of outright independence’. This is a disastrous ploy when dealing with an enemy that has unflinching goals that he hopes to achieve through maneuvers that conceal his true intentions. Candidness and a grovelling spirit of-accommodation on the government side have been met with a Tiger evasiveness and prevarication that have as their aim nothing other than to cheat. To the Tiger leadership negotiations are a means of ‘anaesthetizing’ the people of this country so that the difficult military operation of severing a portion of Sri Lanka can be accomplished without the pain and turmoil that ordinarily accompanies such division. Note that it is the ‘people’ who are unceremoniously cheated. We must hesitate to say the same of the negotiators and their foreign backers. It is to the people of this country, then, that we must outline the process-dynamics envisaged in the Tiger Plan to undermine and, eventually, destroy the sovereignty of Sri Lanka. Here are some of the highlights.
1. The Jaffna peninsula and its proximate territories: A battle for Jaffna is not on the cards. The infiltration by covert cadres currently making splendid progress will be allowed to continue. The special pitch here is to make the military presence of the Sri Lankan Government in the Peninsula a worthless and expensive cosmetic device due to the overwhelming presence of a mixed Tiger—civilian population at the very doorstep of the marooned fortifications. The current campaign to remove the High Security Zones is a vital part of this strategy. Given that cowardice and disarray have been a lamentable feature of our recent battles with the Tigers, one can understand their confidant expectation to capture the heavily-built bases without firing a shot - through the simple expedient of holding the embattled inmates to ransom in a future conflict. Readers will recall that the last battle for Jaffna moved along these lines and would have been spectacularly successful were it not for the bravery of the generals who were brought in as last-minute replacements.
2. Naval supremacy in the North-Eastern Sea: It would not be an exaggeration to say that the survival of our country as a unitary sovereign state will depend, to a large extent, on the ability of our navy to exercise hegemony in the North-Eastern seas. Ignorant of this vital fact, billions were frittered away on a vacuously show-peace Air-Force while the strategic build-up of our naval strength was catastrophically neglected. Such arrant folly was (and is) not a feature of the Tigers. They are desperately aware that the SLN must be removed if the vital umbilical cord that connects the Tiger heartland with the rest of the world is to remain intact - a connection that they cannot forego if the armed state of Eelam is to retain its renowned fighting capacity The hullabaloo over the home-waters of the ‘Eelam Navy’ must be seen in the context of these facts — the first moves in a pressure-game to neutralize the Sri Lanka Navy without the risk of trading live ammunition in a contest that they are very likely to lose. If the current level of folly (on the part of the SLG) persists, they may have their way.
3. For a viable Eelam, Trincomalee is the key: A future Eelam is faced with a formidable discontinuity - the existence of a swathe of territory joining the North-Central heartland of the Sinhala South with the maritime region surrounding the Port City of Trincomalee. This discontinuity must be removed if the resource-rich East is to become an appendix of the Territory of the Northern. Warlord. Hence every effort will be made to forcibly annex the ‘neck’ of territory joining Trincomalee to the region to the east of Polonnaruva. Above all, Trincomalee and its prized harbour must be secured and made the lynchpin of future forays in South Asia. There is more than military advantage in this accession - aided by the Norwegians, the Japanese and other new-found friends, this wonderful port can be the hub of a thriving industrial zone and an economic engine that could propel Eelam to prosperity. All this is pie-in-the-sky, but there is little doubt that Prabhakaran is both ambitious and realistic. The expulsion of a Moorish population long established in an inconvenient wedge north of the Port is first move in a game that is surely being rehearsed in the bunkers of the Warlord. A great dream of his would be the sailing of the Eelam navy into Trincomalee harbour with the Tiger flag fluttering in the breeze. A sad scenario that cannot be ruled out given the cravenness of our negotiators.
4 The burgeoning of the instruments of separation: In military forward planning, there is a dreaded turn of events called the ‘worst case scenario’ - preparing for the eventuality that things will turn out such that all odds are against us while fortune smiles on the enemy. It must be said that this course of action - called a ‘minimax strategy’ in game theory - is the rational thing to do when the outcome is highly unpredictable. Contrast this with the strategy of the foolish optimist, the man who erects a weak defence in the hope that things will turn out all right. Friends, examine next with your mind’s eye the strategic contours of the give and take in the recent rounds of negotiations between the representatives of Prabhakaran and the ‘negotiators’ of the Sri Lankan Government. Prabhakaran adopts the ‘minimax strategy’ - he prepares for the worst and seeks all means to weaken the stance of the other side. What better evidence of this than the establishment of the gubernatorial instruments of a separate state concurrently with the negotiations? He ‘armed forces’ taunt the enemy. His ‘navy’ shoots to kill. His ‘police’ pounce on any alien who dares to cross into his territory. He taxes, he has court hearings. There is no need to go on with this list. What, alas, do we do? We are committed to the belief that peace will dawn and do everything in our power to prevent those of a less optimistic turn of mind from questioning the wisdom of this flight from reality. We put a wildly optimistic gloss on each vile act of the other side. Is there any doubt about the winner of crazy this contest?
5. No let-up in the threat to destroy lives and property of non-combatants: The explosive destruction of lives and property in the South - through the use of heavily-armed suicide squads and ‘living bombs’ - has been for many years a prime strategy of Prbhakaran. More than the killing in the North and East, this visitation of sudden death in the seemingly pacific South has put great fear in the political leadership of our country. That there has been some horse-trading in this regard cannot be doubted - the Tigers have promised an end to their butchery as long as the cease-fire prevails. The million-dollar question is whether there will be a resumption of their spectacular bumping-off if the current negotiations go awry. Their killer squads continue to infiltrate the metropolis and their ‘Black Tiger Formations’ are regularly displayed at morale-boosting sessions organized in the North and East. Are we negotiating under criminal coercion? Is the fear of explosive death a factor in the stance adopted by our political leadership in dealing with Prabhakaran’s insurrection? Sadly, while our leaders are under a kind of suspended death-sentence, the man on the other side has got off the hook with the active help of the current leadership. More than forty operatives of the Deep penetration Unit’ have been liquidated in circumstances that are too well known to be detailed here.
6. Preaching to the Converted - the Buffoonery of the Moralists: Prbhakaran has many friends both in Sri Lanka and in the world who display an astonishing propensity to overlook the murderous vices of the man while being more than ready to castigate those ranged against him for their inhumanity. This is one of the great puzzles of our time. The so-called ‘MOU’ has not damped the ardour of the torch-bearers Panthang-karayas - emissaries flock to meet and greet the man, some crawling through bug-infested thickets to be rewarded with repast of spiced lobsters and ripe mangoes. Here is the paradox - the Sinhalayas are lambasted by both moralists and politicians for their chauvinism and lack of commitment to peace will the real killer and enemy of peace is praised for his courage and devotion to his tribe. As long as this topsy-turviness in political morals last, Prabhakaran cannot lose. He has made a fine art of blaming the victim through the artful use of pseudo-moralists and opportunistic politicians.
7. Prabhakaran counts his blessings - high-level corruption in the South is among the most prized: High-level corruption is endemic in Sri Lanka and an enemy of our country can count on this colossal failing to stymie any national effort to overcome a challenge of whatever kind. Among challenges to the well-being of a nation, war is in a class of its own in that it demands a degree of honesty, courage and dedication that lesser enterprises can afford to forego. That Prabhakaran is aware of this grave failing of the Sri Lankan State is no secret - indeed he boasts that his movement is sustained to a considerable degree by booty won from his enemy. He can count on this - and on a free recruitment of spies and saboteurs from the South if war breaks out again.
8. Real and Virtual Enemies - War and Politics in Sri Lanka: A virtual enemy is one that has public acceptance even if real enmity is directed elsewhere. Throughout the disastrous conflict in the North Prabhakaran was the virtual enemy while the real enemy of the man (or woman) in power was the opponent in the rival political camp. The war was forgotten while the political enemies spent sleepless nights thinking of schemes to outmanoeuvre and filibuster the other side.
This disgusting state of affairs continues unabated and one can be sure that the wily Prabhakaran is exploiting to the full this madness of inter-party dissension that puts the political fortunes of an individual (or party) above the national interest. Amazingly, the killer becomes a political partisan and his help is sought to defeat the opposing side. A politically and morally wreaked nation cannot wage a successful war. The enemy surely factors this into his operational calculus when deciding on a future course of action.
On weighty issues - those involving the very survival of a nation - the greatest sin is that of oversimplification. This is the transformation of a complex and multifaceted problem into something that can be resolved by the use of a two valued logic.
Are you for war or peace? Are you for a land free of bombs and sudden death or do you favour a resumption of hostilities? This is the kind of silly question put to those who have qualms about a craven method of negotiation that panders to every whim and petulant concern of an untrustworthy enemy while ignoring the real concerns of the side they represent. One can be for peace and understand the heart burning of the moral crusaders without being duped into surrender by a desperate warlord that cares nothing for the moral niceties bandied about by ‘Peaceniks’. A land overwhelmed, a nation on the brink of defeat and an historic race threatened with extinction cannot be the backdrop for peace and renunciation.
- Sri Lanka Guardian
What is going on in Sri Lanka for 30 years is a CHESS game. Disadvantage for the South is major players are changed every 04 to 08 years while the big player in the north is playing it for 30 years.
The only way we can win it is if we have a vision and a long term program.
Anton Balasingham told, at one time, that they never expected anything other than Federalism (if I remember correct).
Our major player, I mean the President, also should be very patient, know where he is heading. Should understand the enormous propaganda from many different sides, attempts to influence him, and also the other stake players involved in it such as the Christian church, and the influence of block votes in other countries should not be forgotten.
Out major disadvantage is our politicians are simply dieing for power, corrupt money and luxury that comes with it.
Therefore, we need patriotic politicians who understand what they should do and do it and also need to get rid of corruptions in the parliament.
Parliamentary politics in Sri lanka should be restructured completely to a new beginning.
The animal behaviour of some Sri Lankens in 1983 and many other occasions that gave birth to terrorism in Sri Lanka
Animal behavior staretd when LTTE Terrorists killed 13 SL soldiers in 1983.
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