Ethnic Crisis — is a negotiated solution possible?

(February 22, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The Ethnic crisis and its implications which includes the resilience of the LTTE on one hand and the largely insensitive response of successive governments to the same on the other in the backdrop of geo-political realities it is most difficult to even envisage a military solution by either of the two protagonists. The ethnic crisis and the resultant war has created a powerful vested interest to whom any realistic solution will be an anathema.
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by Amrit Muttukumaru

Ground reality

The ethnic crisis and its implications can never be wished away unless the underlying issues are realistically addressed. These issues are based on the real discrimination and insecurity experienced by the Tamils of this country which translates into real fear and an inferior status in the political, social and economic life of this country. Although it is 18 years since the 1983 program against the Tamils, there has never been any transparent inquiry and commensurate punishment meted out to the perpetrators. In more recent times, we have the Bindunuwewa massacre and the alleged Chemmani mass graves without any convincing and timely inquiry. Although there are indications that at least some of the grievances are being increasingly acknowledged among the people of this country, it is clear that influential sections of our political, religious, professional and private sector establishments still do not fathom the extent of these fears and resultant implications. Because if they did appreciate this, we would have at least attempted a more realistic and timely solution, unless of course we collectively have a tendency towards self-destruction!

In the context of the nature of the crisis and its implications which includes the resilience of the LTTE on one hand and the largely insensitive response of successive governments to the same on the other in the backdrop of geo-political realities it is most difficult to even envisage a military solution by either of the two protagonists. The ethnic crisis and the resultant war has created a powerful vested interest to whom any realistic solution will be an anathema. Apart from the military-commercial complex also flattened by procurements allegedly tainted by massive corruption, it has also made a significant contribution to the growing arrogance of our politicians each of them buttressed by several heavily armed security personnel and the ubiquitous 'back-up' vehicles which nonchalantly drive other road users out of the road! Our political 'masters' also use the conflict to justify the suspension of some democratic norms under the draconian provisions of the emergency regulations. They also blame many of the implications of their atrocious governance on the war. Then we also have the 'peace' and 'ethnic' industry which will only thrive in a conflict situation. Under these circumstances, is it any wonder that the ethnic conflict has become so long drown out, complex and intractable!

Some months ago, the proposed 'Equal Opportunity Bill' was simply jettisoned without even a whimper of protest from any section of society. The pertinent question therefore is whether a nation which is not capable of even passing an equal opportunity bill has the will and whether withal to pass legislation giving extensive devolution to the Tamils? Apart from all this, it is also a fact that many of the fundamentals of democracy do not exist even outside the conflict areas. The economy of the country is also in shambles. Social discontent and rampant crime also seem to be the norm. The signs are that these tendencies will worsen. The most tragic aspect is that we do not have a responsible and assertive opposition which is compounded by an indifferent civil society which is not given direction and leadership by the more articulate and influential sections - our organised professionals and businessmen who seem to be pathetically servile. This then in brief are the ground realities under which we seek a viable negotiated settlement of the ethnic crisis.

Indifference of Civil Society

The country has suffered irreparable losses due to the ethnic conflict. This is in terms of human, social, economic and political costs which are immeasurable particularly in its untold damage to the social fabric of this country. This includes the mayhem caused by thousands of well rmed army deserters. The loss of lives due to the war has been estimated at over 65000 - half of them civilians while those seriously injured and disabled is put at over 55,000. The number of persons displaced by the war and are refugees is estimated at over 1 million, most of them Tamils. Another 750,000 persons mostly Tamils have sought asylum abroad. The war also swallows 6% of GDP annually. Damage to property, industry, lost earnings from tourism and foreign investments are in multiple billions of dollars. The first impression a foreigner gets at the airport is that of a place under siege due to the high security presence. Colombo looks like a garrison city with so many checkpoints with unsightly tar barrels. In addition to the closure or partial closure of so many major roads, other roads too are arbitrarily closed temporarily without any notice and concern for the inconvenience of the general public and man hours lost not to mention the waste of precious fuel. No one seems to care. We are indeed a uniquely docile people. Even if there is a miraculous solution today, the irreparable damage to the psyche of at least two generations of Sri Lankans from all communities particularly from the north-east must be recognised. As a result of the war, we have sadly become a brutalised and insensitive society today. Hence, it is tragically amusing to note people measuring the cost of proposed rehabilitation merely in terms of rupees and cents!

Good Governance with Accountability

In the context of the foregoing, how realistic is a negotiated solution? It is our view that at the present moment it is almost an impossible task unless both parties are coerced by the international community with the support of at least a sizable proportion of influential sections of civil society. It will be clear to any discrening observer that a major reason for the conflict is the absence of good governance with accountability. Both of them in turn feed on each other for sustenance as well. Hence, rather than attempting to resolve contentious issues where the country is deeply divided, let us immediately as an initial step towards resolving the ethnic issue, implement tangible measures to promote good governance with accountability which will find favour with all sections other than possibly the two major political parties which will feel threatened by them. The international community and civil society, particularly the more articulate and influential sections must bring sufficient pressure on these parties to implement the following as an urgent priority:

1) All necessary steps must be taken to promote good governance with accountability. Towards this end, we must also have in place the four proposed independent commissions -Elections, Judicial, Public Service and Police. The government seems reluctant to agree to the Police Commission which is vital for the proper functioning of the other three commissions. This must be undertaken in a transparent manner to ensure that these commissions are truly 'independent' with the necessary powers and resources. The Constitutional Council which will be the appointing agency also responsible for promotions, transfers recource allocation and discipline must be structured to grant these commissions genuine independence. In this context it is strange that the leading opposition party - the UNP wishes to continue the practice of the President appointing the Chief Justice, the President, Court of Appeal and the Judges of these two superior courts. This is totally unacceptable and casts doubts on the bona fides of the UNP.

2) Complete media freedom to be ensured which will include the abrogation of the criminal defamation law. The only exception will be the reporting of sensitive military information such as war strategies. This has possibly never occurred.

Other reasons for a negotiated settlement being almost impossible at the present moment are due to the so-called 'package' to resolve the ethnic issue being diluted each time it has been aired and the conflicting signals emanating from influential sections of the government. For example, the Prime Minister has gone on record espousing a military solution. It is also most irresponsible and unfortunate that the government is linking even the diluted 'package' with a 'new' constitution which also promotes the political career of the incumbent Executive President. Surely, no one can blame any one for opposing such a subjective constitution.

Recommendations

*It is recommended that the international community with the strong support of influential sections of civil society exert sufficient pressure on our politicians to immediately implement measures for good governance with accountability which will include what is given in (1) and (2) above. This must be implemented within a time frame of not more than 4 months. Concurrently, within this same time frame - 2 months, immediate measures will be taken to de-escalate the conflict through an internationally guaranteed: ceasefire, cessation of any hostile acts outside the conflict areas and the lifting of any economic embargo in the conflict areas. Within this time limit - 2 months, immediate international assistance will also be provided for the well being of all displaced persons.

* Internationally supervised negotiations to resolve the conflict shall commence not later than 6 months after the implementation of these measures. The spadework for this venture will have to commence well in advance. It will also be prudent to set a deadline of 1 to 1 1/2 years from the commencement of negotiations to forge a durable solution.

* In striving for a durable solution, it is of the utmost necessity to be realistic. In this regard, we must accept the fact that under the circumstances, we do not seem to be capable of forging a solution by ourselves. Hence, the need for a strong mutually acceptable mediator (not merely a facilitator) who has the necessary clout and prestige. The Sri Lanka crisis is certainly not less complex than the Palestinian and Northern Ireland conflicts. It is noted that those involved in the negotiation process in these conflicts were people of very high profile with international prestige.

* Similarly, we must also not be constrained by the compulsions of a unitary state. We must realise that a solution within the confines of a unitary state does not seem possible.

* All this clearly indicates that our people including our politicians need to be made aware of not only the ground reality in its proper perspective but also developments in other conflict areas. The failure to do this is really a major part of the problem. This must be addressed urgently.

It is unfortunate that we have to rely on international pressure to resolve our problem. We have only ourselves to blame for this - particularly influential sections of our civil society who have behaved in a most irresponsible manner.